Kenshin Route in 27 Turns

Back in my 5SNB guide, I said that Lowest Turn Count (LTC) runs might be more challenging than 5SNB. This guide is my punishment for saying that. At just 27 Turns, it's the fastest Kenshin route that I've ever seen and it's very close to the only other SR LTC run that I've seen, which was KTM in 24 Turns. I don't think that there is any room to make this run even faster, but there are a few ideas in the final section.

This run happens to be the best points run that I've ever done - 173, I think? - but that's more of a testament to the fact that I've never done a real points run than it is anything else. Still, it's better than the typical "just speedrun the Ran route" strategy that I often recommend to newcomers who just need enough points runs to make their first few 5 Star games easy. If somebody wanted to, you could probably dumb this guide down a bit, remove some of the RNG, add some points running tricks, and turn this guide in to an easy way to get over 200 points. After all, once Kenshin is the the Emperor, you have no time constraints in the Kenshin route as long as you don't conquer anywhere owned by the Demon Army.

I don't know if I can recommend designing LTC runs to anyone else. The rage that you feel when you figure out that you had a test run wasted by some silly technicality is unparalleled. As you read through this, you will most likely discover how angry I am about Nozomi.

Theory
Before showing the run, I first want to explain why it is the way that it is. I'm convinced that it's impossible to beat the Kenshin route in fewer than 27 turns. Trouble is, that's such a bold claim that I know that I'm going to have to give some evidence.

'''If you create a run that satisfies all of the constraints given in these sections, it will get the same results as mine. You do not need to copy my turn-by-turn playthrough.'''

Why Turn 22 is the Earliest Possible Route Entry
You just can't enter the Kenshin route before Turn 22. There's no hard requirement in the code that checks for your turn count, but there are so many start of turn events that must be seen before you can enter the route that Turn 22 ends up being the earliest possible. The key bottleneck is the event that introduces Apostle Shikibu, which itself requires Xavier to have swallowed three gourds. To get Shikibu's event as soon as possible, we make the following optimizations:
 * Conquer the Ashikaga House before Turn 8. Doing this hurries the game's start of turn events, the first of which is the cherry blossom event on the start of Turn 9. We'd love to vassal them and speed up Suzume's introduction as well, but the Kenshin route cannot be entered unless you've conquered Ashikaga.
 * Vassal the Akashi House before the second gourd breaks in a start of turn event. Said start of turn event always triggers on the start of Turn 15 in this run, so the latest that we can do this is Turn 14. Vassaling a gourd-owning house breaks their gourd as an end of turn event rather than a start of turn one, so this is how we can skip the gourd-breaking start of turn event on Turn 15. We vassal Akashi because you can't enter the Kenshin route with a vassaled Uesugi or Ashikaga, and it's impossible to vassal Iga before the Tenshi Sect has declared war, which cannot happen until the second gourd has broken. These four houses are the only vassable ones with gourds, so nobody else is in consideration.
 * Vassal the Iga House before the third gourd breaks (start of Turn 20, in this run), but after the Tenshi Sect has declared war (start of Turn 17, in this run). This requires conquering or vassaling Hara beforehand and conquering at least one of the Tenshi Sect's original provinces. This lets us skip the start of turn event where the third gourd breaks by triggering it as an end of turn event. I'm worried about how the MG version of the game might react to this. In the original, you could cause some bugs by vassal-breaking the third gourd too early, so I'm hoping that MG didn't break this non-glitchy trick by trying to patch said glitches.
 * Update: Someone in the comments has tried this. Apparently it causes no issues.

With these optimizations, you will see Shikibu's introduction at the start of Turn 21, letting you see Xavier get the Emperor Headband on the start of Turn 22 (provided that you've satisfied some particular conditions for entering the Kenshin route). There is a lot more to this run than that, but this is one of the biggest tricks. Now, can I prove that this is the fastest way to do it? Honestly, no. I'd try to, but it would mean listing off every single relevant start of turn event and explaining how what I've just listed is the perfect path through those. And if you're going to take me at my word when I tell you that I've listed off all of the relevant start of turn events, why not just cut out the middleman and take my word about Turn 22 being the soonest that this can all be done? If you think that you can do better, I'd be very glad to hear it.

Why Six Turns is the Shortest Possible Kenshin Route (post-entry)
Our final two turns are simple, so we will start with explaining them. Conquering the Demon Army causes Military Chaos, stealing all of our fans. This forces us to end our turn and enter the Orochi Dungeon on our next one. So, if we count the turn where we enter the Kenshin route as our first, then the turn where we conquer the Demon Army must be our second to last, and the turn where we enter the Orochi Dungeon and finish the route must be our last. There's no theory work to do here, it's a plain and simple fact that you cannot beat the route on the same turn that you conquer the Demon Army, so that's already two of six turns accounted for.

Before the Demon Army can be conquered, they must be spawned. Xavier needs three specific end of turn events before he can spawn the Demon Army and these absolutely cannot be skipped, so the earliest that he can spawn them in this run is on our third turn (again, treating route entry as the first turn), making them attackable on our fourth. This means that the theoretical perfect run would conquer them on that turn. If we could actually reach this theoretical minimum, we would have a five turn Kenshin route and therefore a 26 turn game. I don't think that it's possible. You don't have any actions on the turn that you enter the route or the turn after. How are you going to win the race and conquer the Demon Army with just six fans? We're talking about conquering the Demon Army on the turn after they've spawned, something that happens after your Permits have acted, so three of those fans must be spent attacking Senkan Nagato! How are you going to make Kenshin the Emperor with at most three fans, three end of turns, and two +1 points attacks? If you think that I need to justify why that's impossible, I look forward to your outstanding Kenshin route run. Overall, we need the extra turn, forcing us to conclude that the shortest Kenshin route is six turns.

100 Points in Five Turns? How?
Most of this comes down to answering why we duel Nozomi, Yuzumi, and Gon. Truth be told, we don't have much choice. Are you ready for an adventure?
 * Obviously, we can't defeat Xavier, Keikoku, or Kenshin.
 * Because they need start of turn events that we're never going to get, Baba (in Takeda), Shimazu Kazuhisa, Suzutani Musou, and Kumano Gorou are completely out of the question. Go read the Walkthrough if you're unfamiliar with the triggers.
 * Baba (recruited) is out of the question because there are five other commanders that you can duel in your army and all of them are easier to recruit and defeat. I'm also pretty sure that this run is impossible without the Takeda Blitz, and recruiting him almost certainly means removing that.
 * From the above, the only duels that we can consider are Okita Nozomi, Gon, Yuzuhara Yuzumi, Mouri (final house battle), Masamune (final house battle), Mouri (recruited), and Masamune (recruited).
 * If we want to duel anyone other than the final house battle versions of Mouri and Masamune, Kenshin needs to lose her levels. Because we have no actions on route entry and the turn after - let's call them turns 1 and 2 - we must focus on our attention on turns 3, 4, and 5. This gives us nine actions to beat the race. Let's break it down:
 * Action nine is definitely spent destroying the Demon Army, so we've really got eight.
 * We need two actions to get Kenshin to lose her levels and some (at least one, surely?) SAT Bonuses to get them back. That gives us at most five actions to work with.
 * Increasing Kenshin's level doesn't heal her and starting a duel only restores her actions, so you're going to want to lose those levels ASAP so that ending your turn can heal her back up. This means that all of turn 3 is spent on the "lose the levels, then restore them" plan.
 * From the above, we've only got two turns (five actions + conquering the Demon Army) to win our duels and become the Emperor, meaning that we've only got one heal to work with.
 * Yuzumi is the only duel left on our list that I've figured out how to win without taking any damage (you can outspeed and one-hit her at level 31 with 7 Spd and Speed Luck) and I know of no other way to be able to beat two racers in one turn. Ultimately, this means that you have to win the race with only three duels, one of which must be Yuzumi.
 * The obvious path is to have Kenshin lose her levels on turn 3, do something to get them back on the same turn, then do two duels on one of turns 4 or 5 - Yuzumi and somebody else - and do the other duel on the other turn, ending with you somehow winning the race and conquering the Demon Army on turn 5.
 * Gon and Nozomi are the obvious choices for the other two duels. Masamune is too high level to consider and both Gon and Nozomi have a lower Spd stat and HP than Mouri does. I also can't really be bothered with the drama of uncursing Mouri.
 * The above bits about needing to win the race in only three duels are why we need to get hit by both the Shimazu and Takeda Blitzes and lose most of those battles with Kenshin. We need to find 40 points somewhere and every loss with her is +3 points as long as she's level 21 or above. We would be able to do this without the Takeda Blitz, but we end up a little bit short: losing battles in the Shimazu Blitz counts against the two-losses-to-AI-attacks limit the AI uses before it stops attacking. We need to get extra event attacks from somewhere and Takeda's the most obvious place to go.
 * Did I just imply that we need Kenshin to lose almost 15 times in 4 turns? Yes, that's why we're grinding out 10 Motivational Papers. We also need 10 or more Happy Pokkuru so that we can instantly get Kenshin back to being able to lose a battle for +3 points after she's lost her levels.
 * Don't worry about the rule that lets Kenshin win +1 point from a battle. It seems to not work during events like the Shimazu Blitz and I've never found a way to make wild ideas like "can't we win the race in one turn if we win 100 battles?" work.
 * If we want to duel the final house battle versions of Mouri and Masamune, then what's the next step in our master plan? You'll never beat them if you've lost your levels and you can't beat them both in one turn (they're faction conquers). For the already discussed reasons, we don't have the time to beat them and then lose our levels, so the only option here would be some incredible Motivation Paper abuse that will let you beat the race with only two duels. Good luck with that? Even if it works, nobody is going to grind out that many papers. Also, leaving the Mouri House still standing puts you at the completely unacceptable risk of having Keikoku's introduction pushed back a turn by Kojika's events.
 * Just to be clear, I'm aware that taking the One-Eyed Family Bonus does not disqualify Masamune from the race, meaning that you could skip recruiting one of the racers (probably Nozomi) and duel his recruited version instead. However, from what I've been able to tell, even with full HP and the insane RNG needed to beat Nozomi at level 31, our level 41 Speed Luck 7 Spd etc Kenshin cannot beat Masamune. In fact, even with her strongest attack, she only does 199 damage, which is less than one third of Masamune's HP (650). Attack Luck increases this to 227, meaning that even in our impossible "you get excellent speed RNG without Speed Luck and you use your once-only attack thrice" scenario, you would only just barely win. I suspect that it might be more trouble to find a way to beat Masamune than it is to recruit and beat Nozomi instead.

Kenshin Route Template
I've just given you a lot of constraints on what needs to happen for you to get 100 points in the required time frame. In order to satisfy these constraints and what the game's start/end of turn event system demands, your Kenshin route (post-entry) is going to look a lot like this. Let's assume that we enter the route on Turn 22:
 * Turn 19: For modular arithmetic reasons that I've never bothered to understand, you must declare war on Takeda here. It would be nice if you could do it earlier or later, but my mental arithmetic says that you can't and I see no reason to properly check. After all, this run works.
 * Turn 22:
 * Start of turn event: Xavier gets the Emperor Headband.
 * Fans 1 and 2: Whatever your run calls for. Just don't use Kenshin for it.
 * Fan 3: Enter route, losing all fans. Save the game.
 * End phase: When you get attacked, send Kenshin, fire all of her troops if you want, and lose. Then get attacked again and use a Motivational Paper to have her lose again. If you didn't get attacked twice, reload.
 * End of turn events: The event that makes the Takeda generals start appearing in army battles. Also, Keikoku's introduction.
 * Total points: 6. Papers used: 1.
 * Turn 23:
 * Start of turn event: Fight Xavier, losing all fans. Try not to embarrassingly lose the Rengoku fight - you don't have Rance Attack and you've only got 1 level on Rance, so you need to be a little conservative.
 * Before ending turn: Heal your Permits (...don't expect regular reminders about that) and save the game.
 * End phase: Lose two battles with Kenshin again. Your map is very important next turn and the turn after, so try not to end this turn with too many territories under enemy possession.
 * End of turn events: If you're asked about making peace with the Tenshi Sect, say whatever you want. The Takeda Blitz will be easier if you say no, but the Shimazu Blitz will be easier if you say yes. I recommend yes. You must get the notification that the Takeda Army is gathering and see Xavier flee with Shikibu.
 * Total points: 12. Papers used: 2.
 * Turn 24:
 * WARNING: INSANE RNG AHEAD!
 * Start of turn event: Unskippable pointless Kouhime stuff. It's the highest priority remaining Kenshin route start of turn event, so it really can't be skipped.
 * Fans 1-3: This is the first turn where you have actions. Talk to Kenshin twice, removing her levels, then take one SAT Bonus to get her to level 11.
 * Before ending turn: Use 10 or more Happy Pokkuru on getting Kenshin to at least level 21 (it's needed for the +3 points events). I won't speculate on the consequences of blocking the last +10 levels SAT Bonus by using this opportunity to get her level higher than 39. But hey, good for you if you have that option. Save the game.
 * End phase: Lose two battles with Kenshin again. After that, get Takeda Blitzed. Lose all of those battles with her as well (it's what the Motivational Papers were for!). You really don't want your Permits attacking anyone but the Demon Army on your next turn, so reload your save until you only have one or less territories that your Battle Permits must retake before they can attack the Demon Army.
 * Update: See the section about Shinano near the bottom.
 * End of turn event: Xavier conquers Shimazu and therefore takes Senkan Nagato from you.
 * Total: 30 points. Papers used: 7.
 * Turn 25:
 * WARNING: INSANE RNG AGAIN!
 * Start of turn event: Informed of Demon Army's spawning (again, TOTALLY unskippable).
 * Fans 1-3: Use another SAT Bonus to gain 10 levels, then do it again, then duel Nozomi. With good RNG, you'll be fine.
 * Before ending turn: Make sure that all of your Battle Permits are ready and your map is as it should be and save the game. You need a Permit to attack the Demon Army, thus triggering the Shimazu Blitz, while also having enough Permits available to be able to put the Demon Army in a state where they can be conquered with just one fan even after you've lost most if not all of their Blitz.
 * End phase: Lose four of the Blitz battles with Kenshin, reloading until your remaining Battle Permits have left the Demon Army such that you can conquer one of their provinces with a single fan on your next turn. If need be, win the battle that you didn't need Kenshin to lose in, but don't expect Kenshin to get a point from it if you bring her. Don't forget that because the Permit that triggered the Blitz probably attacked Senkan Nagato, you might only need your remaining Permits to attack there once.
 * Update: TsuchiNoKao and Gantifandor's comments suggest that the RNG requriment here might be lower than expected: The Shimazu Blitz cannot retake territory in provinces that the Demon Army owns, so you definitely only need your remaining Permits to attack Senkan Nagato once.
 * End of turn event: Madou's introduction, probably. By now, who cares?
 * Total: 30+20+12=62 points. Papers used: All 10.
 * Turn 26:
 * Start of turn event: Kenshin training event that does nothing. You cannot skip it or trigger anything else.
 * Fan 1: Duel Yuzumi. It helps if you don't take any damage. She should be a one-hit kill.
 * Fan 2: Duel Gon, making Kenshin the Emperor. Expect Gon to take two hits.
 * Fan 3: Conquer the Demon Army by conquering anywhere of theirs that only takes one fan to conquer, causing Military Chaos.
 * Before ending turn: I suggest recruiting whatever you can from your prison for the upcoming Xavier fight. Now is also a good time to think about your items.
 * End of turn event: Xavier goes to the Orochi dungeon.
 * Turn 27:
 * Start of turn event: Kenshin, Emperor of JAPAN, gets congratulated on her first Emperor Race win.
 * Fans 1 and 2: Get your items ready for the Xavier fight and do something smart with your two spare actions (maybe get Rance Attack?).
 * Fan 3: Enter the Orochi dungeon and win the route.

What Must Be Done Before Route Entry?
Now that we know what we must do at the end of the game, we can figure out the start. This is going to be a long one. To be clear, this isn't a guide, it's just the set of things that you either must do or really should do.
 * First of all, our Second Game Bonuses:
 * 5 Star difficulty. I've not checked if any of the required events depend on your difficulty setting, but why would you do a challenge run like this on any other difficulty?
 * Take the Uesugi, Houjou, and Mouri Family Bonuses. I'm not sure if they're strictly necessary, but they really help. At minimum, I'm confident that you need the Houjou Bonus because being at war with Houjou super early is a necessary step for Imagawa to be introduced super early, which is needed to get Nozomi on time.
 * DO NOT TAKE THE TAKEDA FAMILY BONUS. You need to be Blitzed.
 * I can't think of any reason why you can't take the One-Eyed Family Bonus on top of these, but I've not tested it. In fact, I've become convinced that it's a really good choice because it should block out their introduction event (even if you conquer Sado) and give you great units at the start of the game without any side-effects on the rest of your playthrough. Note that I said "should" - it's untested. Update: Someone in the comments has tried this. Apparently it causes no issues.
 * For items, only the Ryuuguu Sword Urashimaru and Speed Textbook 2 appear mandatory. However, I definitely suggest the Popularity Staff, Negoshi Eita, all of the Gold Statues, and anything that you think will help you get your Battle Permits up and running. You're also going to have to fight Xavier at the end, so keep that in mind.
 * Do whatever you want with the other items and special characters. The special characters are free money if you get them, fire their troops, and then fire them.
 * Take all of the entries on the bottom menu of bonuses. NP, gold, extra fan, Battle Permits...
 * Next up, what do we have to do during the game at specific times?
 * Before Turn 8, fully conquer Ashikaga. As explained earlier, this is a start of turn event optimization. For reasons explained later, you've got to rush through conquering the Mouri House, so you really want to conquer Ashikaga ASAP. Get Kyo first so you can get the Tanegashima introduction early.
 * Before you vassal Akashi in the next step, you probably want to cut their requirement down a bit. Did you remember Negoshi Eita?
 * Before the second gourd breaks, which will be the start of Turn 15 in this plan, vassal Akashi. As explained earlier, this is a start of turn event optimization.
 * Before the Tenshi Sect declares war (i.e. the start of Turn 17), fully conquer the Mouri House. We need them conquered for a lot of reasons, but the key part is that we need to stop Kojika's end of turn events as soon as possible. If we don't do this, then we risk the Demon Army spawning late and missing out on the end of turn events needed to recruit Nozomi. The early Mouri conquer also guarantees that Shimazu is introduced long before their introduction event has any chance of slowing the Demon Army down.
 * Before you can vassal Iga, you or your vassals need to have a lot of provinces adjacent to Iga's original province and Iga needs to get a turn after you've got said load of provinces (they have to refresh before their vassal condition knows that it's been met). You want to vassal Iga before Turn 20 (I think that's the limit for when the third gourd breaks... I normally do this super quickly), so I strongly suggest conquering or vassaling the Hara House and declaring war on the Iga House, both before Turn 20. You're also going to need to conquer one of the Tenshi Sect's provinces before you can vassal Iga.
 * I like to kill two birds with one stone and do the Tenshi conquer (they've got a two territory place) and Iga war declaration on the same turn. Have Hara vassaled beforehand. You also need Kyo.
 * As I just explained, after the war with the Tenshi Sect starts (i.e. the start of Turn 17), but before the third gourd breaks as a start of turn event (Turn 20, I think), vassal Iga. As explained earlier, this is a start of turn event optimization.
 * On Turn 19, declare war on Takeda. This might seem early, but you need to do it so you can get Takeda Blitzed during the Kenshin route.
 * Finally, here are the general jobs that need to be done before route entry:
 * I've not figured out what the turn requirements are, but seriously - declare war on Tokugawa and check up on the Shisengumi on Kyo as soon as you can. As I explained in an earlier section, lots of stupid things can block Nozomi's events. This is the only way that I've bothered to work out to optimize them away.
 * A commenter delayed declaring war on Tokugawa to as far as turn 12, so maybe you can wait for longer than I thought.
 * Equip Kenshin with the Ryuuguu Sword Urashimaru (the +100 damage item) and give her the bonus Speed 2 textbook. In the long run, increasing her Spd by any other non-equippable means that come to mind will also help.
 * Grind out 10 Motivational Papers before route entry. You know why. Just clear the first dungeon over and over again. It's only one floor and you can easily savescum it. After the first clear, the drop chance is 1 in 7.
 * Major update: Gantifandor in the comments has pointed out that you only need to willingly leave a dungeon to get a 1 in 7 chance at the drop. You therefore never need to clear any dungeons in this run and your first time clearing the dungeon won't give you the 1 in 7 drop chance anyway. Rather than repeatedly clear the first dungeon, just do one floor and then leave. When you reach the point of being forced to do the last floor for the first time, just search for Izumo's dungeon and start doing single floors of that instead. My turn-by-turn conquers Izumo early on anyway, so the fan that you save by not fully clearing the first dungeon can then be spent on finding Izumo's dungeon.
 * Get at least 10 Happy Pokkuru before Kenshin loses her levels. You may also want to recruit Ashikaga Choushin, any Defeated Warrior Hunt/Light Attack prisoners, and never lose Niwa Nagahide. Don't fool yourself in to thinking that this requirement is unreasonable. You just have to average slightly more than two captures a turn. In a game where you can get two captures a battle, this isn't much. If you really must, skip Rance Attack (I did) and use the Miko Institute's conquer to give Rance Light Attack.
 * Before route entry, recruit Yuzumi, Gon, and Oktia Nozomi and keep them in your army all game. You need to conquer Tanegashima early so you can reach Mouri early, so Yuzumi's not a problem and I've optimized the end of turn events to let you get Nozomi before route entry. The only trouble is Gon. Just declare war when you can and let your Battle Permits do the work towards a full Takuga conquer. Don't lose Ryouma!
 * Have 30 SAT's worth of SAT Bonuses unused before route entry.
 * As explained in the next point, you're going to need some or all of Sado before and on Turn 22. To beat the route, you're also going to need the Miko Institute's land under your control. To kill two birds with one stone, I say that you should conquer the Miko Institute and use that to let you conquer Mazo, letting you reach Sado and do Kenshin's events.
 * Update: Gantifandor has pointed out in the comments that you don't strictly need to conquer the Mikos before route entry. You could do all of their events before route entry and use the two spare fans that I have on the final turn of the run to war them and use the Emperor's power to demand their surrender. I don't see why you would do things that way, but you can.
 * Before and on Turn 22, satisfy all of the conditions for entering the Kenshin route. I'm not going to repeat what the Walkthrough already says, but note that you're going to want to have some or all of Sado under your control so that you can do Kenshin's pre-entry events and enter the route. Don't lose Ai!
 * I advise against conquering Sado. I think that doing so leads to the introduction of the One-Eyed House, which I think may also push some of your end of turn events back. However, the real reason why I don't recommend the conquer is because you need to be at a few wars at a time so you can farm for Happy Pokkuru and losses with Kenshin. If you take the One-Eyed Family Bonus, this might change.
 * Give Kenshin Speed Luck. I'm not sure if it's strictly necessary, but it can't hurt. I'm suggesting it because you really want to outspeed Yuzumi. The best time to do this is when you get Kenshin to Trust as part of satisfying the conditions for entering the Kenshin route.
 * I strongly suggest getting the riceball event (i.e. Rance and Kenshin's pre-battle event) on the same turn that you get Kenshin to Trust. You don't want to risk forgetting it.
 * Have a few Battle Permits up and running before the Demon Army spawns. The theoretical minimum is probably three, but you will really want all five. To do this, you might want to take the 2nd Game Bonuses that give you the Gold Statues (and equip them on Turn 1!). I'm pretty sure that there's a way to get two Battle Permits online before Turn 2, so this really shouldn't be hard.
 * On route entry, you're going to want to be in a lot of wars.

My Turn-By-Turn
Warning: This version was done with a cheating device that let me win army battles whenever I wanted. I plan to do this for real at some later date and add some pretty pictures, but I wanted to beat the kinks out first.

As a general rule, save extremely often.

Bonuses
I listed all of the important ones somewhere above. Just copy that and take whatever extra items you want.

Spare Fans
If your lucky with your Battle Permits, you will often find that you don't need to attack territories that I'm telling you to because they're already taken. In such cases, I suggest spending your fans on the following: Whatever you do, try not to conquer any extra houses. You need the wars. I also worry that you will cause a house to be introduced and push your end of turn events back.
 * Making sure that you have as many Happy Pokkurus as possible. You need a total of at least 10. If you already have 10, don't worry too much about getting more.
 * Making sure that you have at least 10 Motivational Papers.
 * Making sure that you have at least three Satisfaction Bonuses free before route entry. With all this dungeoneering, you definitely have some Sill stuff to collect on.
 * Getting as many Battle Permits ready as you can. Three is probably the absolutely minimum, but try for five.
 * Giving Kenshin a few affection items, talking to her, and using the 7/7 to bring her Spd stat up to 8 or 9 can't hurt.
 * Anything to make your army stronger, particularly anything that also helps for the Xavier fight at the end of the route or for the Happy Pokkuru collection. Isn't there a Kuge sister with Light Attack? Why not get her?

Turn 1

 * Start of turn event: Pointless stuff.
 * General: Fire anyone who you don't want, making sure to fire their troops first. Try to get under your NP cap. Set up your items, particularly the Popularity Staff, Gold Statues, Negoshi Eita, and Battle Permits. Make sure to give Kenshin the +100 damage sword and the Speed 2 book. I repeat my recommendation for NOT firing Niwa Nagahide. You can turn Shibata in to a Battle Permit on this turn, but since you've started with Naoe Ai and can't fire her, you might want to wait until Turn 4 just for Asset Tech purposes.
 * Fans 1-3: Open the prison, search for the first dungeon, and do it once for a useless drop.
 * Update: Going by Gantifandor's major update that I've described above, you're better off only doing one floor and then leaving the dungeon. Reload until this gives you a paper drop.
 * End of turn event: Imagawa gets introduced, proving that taking the Houjou Family Bonus was a really good idea.

Turn 2

 * Start of turn event: Pointless stuff.
 * Fans 1-3: Clear the dungeon three times. Each time, save and reload until you get a Motivational Paper. [Paper count: 3/10].
 * Update: If you followed the Gantifandor's major update, then you're now at 4/10. Don't clear the dungeon, just do one floor and leave.
 * End of turn events: Some Imagawa event plays and Ashikaga gets introduced.

Turn 3

 * Start of turn event: H-ing Sill.
 * Fans 1-3: Declare war on Ashikaga. Attack Kyo twice and win both times. Remember to bring Niwa because you'll be needing the captures later.
 * End phase: If you get attacked, defend and win. Don't expect regular reminders for this. You're farming for captures all game and specific things need to be conquered at specific times. Read ahead and infer what must not be lost.
 * End of turn events: Hara might declare war but you don't care. Haniwa choose to make the journey to the capital. Iga's introduction.

Turn 4

 * Start of turn event: Pointless Kou stuff.
 * General: This is about the point where the game punishes you for bringing Rance to an Ashikaga fight, so don't do that. Either now or next turn, make Shibata your first Battle Permit user.
 * Fans 1-3: Attack the Oil Field twice (bring Niwa!), then conquer Kyo.
 * End of turn events: Hara might declare war but you don't care. Tokugawa will see the haniwa pass through and you'll also see Tokugawa's introduction.

Turn 5

 * Start of turn event: More pointless Kou stuff.
 * Fan 1: Conquer Oil - you probably won't benefit from bringing Niwa.
 * Fan 2: Do the first Miko Institute event.
 * Fan 3: Declare war on Tokugawa. You're not going to do anything with Tokugawa yet, you're just declaring war because doing so prevents some events that can take priority over some things that you need to recruit Nozomi.
 * Before ending turn: Strongly consider recruiting Choushin for his Defeated Warrior Hunt passive. If not now, then reconsider later.
 * End of turn events: Get asked about the Haniwa going to the capital and choose to leave them alone. Because of how quickly we conquered Kyo, Tanegashima should get introduced. If Hara declared war, you might see some Aki events.

Turn 6

 * Start of turn event: H-ing Suzume.
 * Fans 1-3: Declare war on Tanegashima and attack twice. If you're bringing a Defeated Warrior Hunt user, save him for the second battle.
 * End of turn events: The haniwa reach Kyo. Yuzumi will also get introduced and you will probably get a Tokugawa event. You'll also see Asai-Asakura's introduction.

Turn 7

 * Start of turn event: Suzume joins.
 * Fans 1-2: Conquer Tanegashima. You probably won't benefit much from bringing Niwa to this. If your Permits helped last turn, good for you, go do something useful.
 * Fan 3: Check up on the Shisengumi in Kyo.
 * Before ending turn: Recruit Yuzumi and take the chance to check if there's anyone useful in your prison (e.g. Defeated Warrior Hunt people). If not, this is probably the time to get your first +1 level item.
 * End phase: Mouri will probably attack you when you end your turn, so that's the time for Niwa and friends.
 * End of turn events: I find that my Battle Permits have an annoying bias towards Tokugawa, so you're probably going to see some of their events. You should also see an event with Inukai being told about Suzume's defection. Finally, you should see Takuga's introduction.

Turn 8

 * Start of turn event: Cherry blossoms.
 * Fans 1-3: Conquer Izumo. If you have spare fans, use them well.
 * Update: Like for finding Izumo's dungeon. Again, see Gantifandor's major update.
 * Before ending turn: You can probably afford your second Permit by now, I usually use Mouri Motonari for it.
 * End of turn events: Another Iga event and another Takuga event. Akashi's introduction.

Turn 9

 * Start of turn event: First gourd breaks.
 * Fans 1-3: Conquer Senkan Nagato. Spare fans? Good for you!
 * End of turn events: A Kojika event and a Takuga event. Shimazu should also get introduced.

Turn 10

 * Start of turn event: Kou worrying about Nobunaga.
 * Fans 1-2: Conquer the place that normally becomes Takuga's.
 * Fan 3: Do the first dungeon again for a Paper. Do I need to tell you to save for that? [Paper count: 4/10]
 * Update: Again, going by Gantifandor's update, this is where you could find Izumo's dungeon instead of re-doing the first one.
 * End of turn events: Haniwa playing a ball game, Iga talking about Nobunaga, maybe a Hara event, Shimazu talking about Senkan Nagato being conquered, and finally Takeda's introduction.

Turn 11

 * Start of turn event: Rance and Sill check up on Nobunaga.
 * Fans 1-3: Conquer Mouri. Spare fans? Good for you!
 * End of turn events: Haniwa tea ceremony and the Tenshi Sect's introduction.

Turn 12

 * Start of turn event: More Kou and Nobunaga nonsense.
 * Fans 1-2: Do the two remaining Miko Institute events.
 * Fan 3: Declare war on Akashi.
 * Before ending turn: Now would be another good time to check your prison.
 * End of turn event: Asai-Asakura makes a big donation. Would you believe that's contributing to your inability to recruit Nozomi?

Turn 13

 * Start of turn event: Nobunaga and Rengoku do stuff.
 * Fan 1: Make a really big hole in the vassal requirement for Akashi without actually vassaling them.
 * Fan 2: Declare war on Takuga.
 * Fan 3: Do the first dungeon again [Paper count: 5/10].
 * Update: Or rather, do a floor of Izumo's.
 * Before ending turn: Save the game.
 * End phase: Let your Permits get Takuga down to being an attack or two away from defeat. By the way, are you nearly ready for that third Permit? By now, I've usually had a lucky capture for my Permits.
 * End of turn event: Another Asai-Asakura event that's quietly blocking Nozomi. Can you tell that I'm mad about this? I've lost too many runs to this stuff.

Turn 14

 * Start of turn event: Xavier tells Rance that he can conquer as far as he wants.
 * Fan 1: Vassal Akashi.
 * Fans 2-3: Conquer Takuga.
 * General: Over the next few turns, recruit Ryouma and Gon. You can get them both in the same turn if you close and reopen the prison menu after recruiting Ryouma.
 * Before ending turn: This is also another good chance to clear out your prison.
 * End of turn events: Seigan's new girl is introduced, as is maybe Kentarou. Second gourd breaks. AND YOU GET A SHINSENGUMI EVENT - OH MY ALICE! YES! YOU HAVE NO IDEA HOW MANY RUNS IT TOOK ME TO GET THIS IN TIME!

Turn 15

 * Start of turn events: A Kouhime event AND Genri's introduction.
 * General: You're going to need some affection items for Turn 19. Start saving them up if you need to.
 * Fans 1-3: Declare war on Hara and attack twice.
 * End of turn event: ANOTHER SHINSENGUMI EVENT. YES! YES! YES!

Turn 16

 * Start of turn event: Rance meets Rengoku.
 * Fan 1: Vassal Hara (or I guess you can conquer?).
 * Fan 2: Declare war on the Miko Institute.
 * Fan 3: Do the first dungeon again [Paper count: 6/10].
 * Update: Or rather, do a floor of Izumo's.
 * End of turn event: Lots of Miko events.

Turn 17

 * Start of turn event: Tenshi declares war.
 * Fans 1-2: Conquer Mikan.
 * Fan 3: Declare war on Iga.
 * Before ending turn: Save your game.
 * End phase: Let your Battle Permits knock the Mikos down to their last territory and make sure that you keep them there. Reload if need be.
 * End of turn event: Doesn't really matter.

Turn 18

 * Start of turn event: Tenshi troop defections. Fix the troop count of your Battle Permits. If you don't have at least three by now, then what's wrong with you?
 * Fan 1: Vassal Iga.
 * Fan 2: Conquer Mikos. I suspect that the best use of the affection bonus is to give Rance Light Attack.
 * Fan 3: Do the first dungeon again [Paper count: 7/10].
 * Update: Or rather, do a floor of Izumo's.
 * Before ending turn: Now is another good time to clear out your prison.
 * End of turn events: Probably a Kojika event. Third gourd breaks.

Turn 19

 * Start of turn event: Kouhime doesn't understand Nobunaga.
 * Fan 1: Without using Kenshin, get a territory in Mazo if you don't have one already.
 * Fan 2: Talk to Kenshin once, then go in to the item menu and get her affection to 7/7.
 * Fan 3: Declare war on Takeda.
 * Before ending turn: Save the game.
 * End phase: Hold your ground in Mazo.
 * End of turn event: Nothing of note.

Turn 20

 * Start of turn event: Chaos's story.
 * Fans 1-2: Conquer Mazo.
 * Fan 3: Talk to Kenshin once, bringing her to Trust, and give her Speed Luck while you're at it.
 * General: This turn or next, get attacked and bring Rance and Kenshin to the fight. This will trigger the riceball event.
 * End of turn event: Nothing of note.

Turn 21

 * Start of turn event: Shikibu's introduction; The whole point of this run!
 * Fans 1-2: Do the two events for recruiting Nozomi.
 * Fan 3: Do the first dungeon again [Paper count: 8/10].
 * Update: Or rather, do a floor of Izumo's.
 * End phase: Make sure that you control some but not all of Sado at the end of this turn. Are you ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN that you've seen Rance and Kenshin's pre-battle event?
 * End of turn event: Nothing of note.

Turn 22

 * Start of turn event: Xavier gets the Emperor Headband.
 * Fans 1 and 2: Do the first dungeon two last times [Paper count: 10/10].
 * Update: Or rather, do a floor of Izumo's, leave, then do it again and leave.
 * Fan 3: Enter route, losing all fans.
 * Before ending turn: Save the game.
 * End phase: When you get attacked, send Kenshin, fire all of her troops if you want, and lose. Then get attacked again and use a Motivational Paper to have her lose again. If you didn't get attacked twice, reload.
 * End of turn events: The event that makes the Takeda generals start appearing in army battles. Also, Keikoku's introduction.
 * Total points: 6. Papers used: 1.

Turn 23

 * Start of turn event: Fight Xavier, losing all fans. Try not to embarrassingly lose the Rengoku fight - you don't have Rance Attack and you've only got 1 level on Rance, so you need to be a little conservative.
 * Before ending turn: Heal your Permits and save the game.
 * End phase: Lose two battles with Kenshin again. Your map is very important next turn and the turn after, so try not to end this turn with too many territories under enemy possession.
 * End of turn events: If you're asked about making peace with the Tenshi Sect, say whatever you want. The Takeda Blitz will be easier if you say no, but the Shimazu Blitz will be easier if you say yes. I recommend yes. You must get the notification that the Takeda Army is gathering and see Xavier flee with Shikibu.
 * Total points: 12. Papers used: 2.

Turn 24
WARNING: INSANE RNG AHEAD!
 * Start of turn event: Unskippable pointless Kouhime stuff.
 * Fans 1-3: This is the first turn where you have actions. Talk to Kenshin twice, removing her levels, then take one SAT Bonus to get her to level 11.
 * Before ending turn: Use 10 or more Happy Pokkuru on getting Kenshin to at least level 21 (it's needed for the +3 points events). I won't speculate on the consequences of blocking the last +10 levels SAT Bonus by using this opportunity to get her level higher than 39. But hey, good for you if you have that option. Save the game.
 * End phase: Lose two battles with Kenshin again. After that, get Takeda Blitzed. Lose all of those battles with her as well (it's what the Motivational Papers were for!). You really don't want your Permits attacking anyone but the Demon Army on your next turn, so reload your save until you only have one or less territories that your Battle Permits must retake before they can attack the Demon Army.
 * Update: See the section about Shinano near the bottom.
 * End of turn event: Xavier conquers Shimazu and therefore takes Senkan Nagato from you.
 * Total: 30 points. Papers used: 7.

Turn 25
WARNING: INSANE RNG AGAIN!
 * Start of turn event: Informed of Demon Army's spawning.
 * Fans 1-3: Use another SAT Bonus to gain 10 levels, then do it again, then duel Nozomi. With good RNG, you'll be fine.
 * Before ending turn: Make sure that all of your Battle Permits are ready and your map is as it should be and save the game. You need a Permit to attack the Demon Army, thus triggering the Shimazu Blitz, while also having enough Permits available to be able to put the Demon Army in a state where they can be conquered with just one fan even after you've lost most if not all of their Blitz.
 * End phase: Lose four of the Blitz battles with Kenshin, reloading until your remaining Battle Permits have left the Demon Army such that you can conquer one of their provinces with a single fan on your next turn. If need be, win the battle that you didn't need Kenshin to lose in, but don't expect Kenshin to get a point from it if you bring her. Don't forget that because your Permit that triggered the Blitz probably attacked Senkan Nagato, you might only need your remaining Permits to attack there once.
 * Update: TsuchiNoKao and Gantifandor's comments suggest that the RNG requriment here might be lower than expected: The Shimazu Blitz cannot retake territory in provinces that the Demon Army owns, so you definitely only need your remaining Permits to attack Senkan Nagato once.
 * End of turn event: Madou's introduction, probably. By now, who cares?
 * Total: 30+20+12=62 points. Papers used: All 10.

Turn 26

 * Start of turn event: Kenshin training event that does nothing.
 * Fan 1: Duel Yuzumi. It helps if you don't take any damage. She should be a one-hit kill.
 * Fan 2: Duel Gon, making Kenshin the Emperor. Expect Gon to take two hits.
 * Fan 3: Conquer the Demon Army by conquering anywhere of theirs that only takes one fan to conquer, causing Military Chaos.
 * Before ending turn: I suggest recruiting whatever you can from your prison for the upcoming Xavier fight. Now is also a good time to think about your items.
 * End of turn event: Xavier goes to the Orochi dungeon.

Turn 27
You win!
 * Start of turn event: Kenshin, Emperor of JAPAN, gets congratulated on her first Emperor Race win.
 * Fans 1 and 2: Get your items ready for the Xavier fight and do something smart with your two spare actions (maybe get Rance Attack?).
 * Fan 3: Enter the Orochi dungeon and win the route.

Can We Do Better?
Most of this section is about making the run easier rather than faster. I don't think that I've got any practical ideas for making it faster. Maybe you do?

Fourth Action Fan?
The most obvious idea is to get the fourth action fan. I really don't think that it's possible, but I can't rule it out. The fastest guide that I know of does it in 24 turns. We're beating the game in 27 and have to do a lot of things that they don't (e.g. win the Emperor Race and make sure that Shikibu shows up as early as possible). They also do a lot of things that we probably can't, like not taking the Uesugi Family Bonus and doing a lot of work near the top of the map. I'd love to be proven wrong and will openly assist anyone who wishes to try and fit the fourth action fan in to this route. I don't have high hopes, but this is the only optimization route for this run that I think might be viable.

Win Countless Battles in Three Turns?
When Kenshin wins a battle while in the race, she gets +1 point. I think that it doesn't trigger if the battle was technically an event, e.g. the Shimazu Blitz. Anyway, unlike losing battles when the AI is attacking you, there's no hard cap on the number of non-event battles that you can win in a turn when you're being attacked. If, by some miracle, you can use this trick to make Kenshin the Emperor early - for example, you could win 60 battles and 2 duels (who with? You've only got one turn) - then you'd be able to win the race earlier and therefore conquer the Demon Army on the turn that they spawn. The sheer absurdity of getting attacked that many times and winning that many battles aside, how are you even going to get the Motivational Papers? You've only got like 60 fans to work with before entering the route. My intuition tells me that this plan is mathematically doomed.

Use the Human-Headed Dog?
I don't like the Motivational Paper grind and you shouldn't either. If the Nozomi and Gon duels can be won without the +100 damage sword, you will be able to give her the Dog all game instead. This won't remove the Paper grind, but it will reduce it. As the next point shows, our Kenshin is overleveled anyway. Could be worth a try? It won't make the route faster, but it will make the route easier.

Stop at Level 31 Kenshin?
With truly remarkable RNG - I think it's less than a 4% chance - a level 31, 7 Spd Kenshin with Speed Luck and the +100 damage sword can beat Nozomi on the same turn that Kenshin became level 31. You have to get lucky enough to hit Nozomi thrice in the time that it takes her to weak attack you once. The same trick can be used on Gon and Yuzumi is still an OHKO for this Kenshin. This proves that there's no need to spend the fan that I spent getting Kenshin to level 41 (Turn 25, fan 2). However, I don't know what else you could use the fan on. If you lose a battle or retake whatever territory that Takeda took from you last turn, then it gives your Permits more leeway against the Shimazu Blitz, but do you really want to do the hard Nozomi RNG grind just to make the hard Shimazu Blitz RNG grind easier? Even if you took this chance to beat two racers in one turn (Nozomi and Yuzumi, I imagine), it's not like that's going to let you conquer the Demon Army a turn earlier. It just saves a fan that the Military Chaos from conquering the Demon Army is going to steal. I'm happy to hear some ideas about this, but I don't think that there is any room for improvement here?

More Happy Pokkuru?
Following on from the last point, suppose that we had some crazy number of Happy Pokkuru, let's say 30. Can this be used to reduce the turn count of this run? If so, how are we getting so many Pokkuru? I've got some ideas for abusing Light Attack. For example, recruit that Kuge sister or take the One-Eyed Family Bonus and see if you can give Masamune Light Attack. Anyway, I'm not sure what can actually be done with this idea. Like I said much earlier, the main constraints are that you need to end your turn for Kenshin's HP to heal and that you need a turn for your Battle Permits to beat down a Demon Army province. Even if we somehow instantly got Kenshin to level 70 after spending two fans to have her lose her levels, I can't see how this would save us a turn. Am I missing something obvious?

The only thing that comes to mind is that you could take the One-Eyed Family Bonus and duel Masamune in your army, rather than going through the trouble of recruiting Nozomi. However, that doesn't reduce your turn count, it just makes the run less of a hassle for people who are lucky or obsessive enough to get an excessive amount of Pokkuru.

Attack Luck?
I don't think that you strictly need Speed Luck to move before Yuzumi. After all, 7 Spd and Speed Luck's buff is equivalent to just having 9 Spd. Heck, I never even checked if you need 7 Spd OR Speed Luck, never mind both. Maybe Attack Luck will serve you better somewhere? I don't think that this will reduce the turn count, but it's worth noting.

Defense Luck?
I really don't believe that it's possible to beat three racers in one turn, but this might be the way to do it. You only heal actions - not HP - before duels, so this is one way to conserve your HP, which is the main constraint on being able to beat three racers in one turn. I have no faith in this idea, but maybe you do?

Cripple Other Racers?
So we can equip items to racers in our army, right? Does that mean that we can give them an item that harms them, like that +5000 troops item that gives -2 to all stats? Isn't there also some item that makes you do terrible damage to anything that's not some extremely specific class? The tests that I've done suggest that this doesn't work at all and my understanding of the game's code confirms that, but maybe somebody else knows better?

Three Duels in One Turn?
Suppose that one of the above tricks work and you win three duels in one turn. Does that get you anywhere useful? What I'm trying to say is, if somebody did work out a plan that could win you three duels in one turn, would it actually improve the route in any way? I think it's impossible, so I've not bothered to think it through, but maybe there's something out there?

Less End of Turn Event optimization?
Yamanaka Kojika's end of turn events take priority over some of the ones that you need for the Demon Army to spawn on time. I think that they also take priority over the ones that you need for Okita Nozomi to become recruitable. In testing, I blamed Nozomi's events not playing on time on Kojika. I later discovered that a different mechanic was to blame. Namely, some end of turn events cannot play on the same turn as others, so many Tokugawa, Imagawa, and Asai-Asakura events can block out the end of turn events that you need for Nozomi. Anyway, this meant that my final route was ruthlessly designed to stop Kojika's events as soon as I could and also to quickly block out Tokugawa's events that cannot share an end of turn phase with Nozomi's. Overall, I might have declared war on Tokugawa far too early (and why pick them when other houses are also to blame?) and put a stop to Kojika's events sooner than I needed to. Nothing that I've just said will cut down the turn count of the run, but it might make the run easier if someone could be bothered to really study end of turn events.

Update: A commenter delayed declaring war on Tokugawa to as far as turn 12, so maybe you can wait for longer than I thought.

War Takeda at a Different Time?
As I admitted earlier, I only used mental arithmetic to work out when I could war Takeda and get Blitzed. If there's a better time to do it, I don't know of it. They're too mathematically weird for me to bother with. They use modular arithmetic and I've got no patience for number theory, even if it's the sort that a first year CS student could do while drunk.

Conquer Shinano and nowhere that borders it?
In the comments, Gantifandor has pointed out an easier way to get through the Takeda Blitz. If Takeda only controls Shell, you fully control Shinano, and you control nowhere else that borders Shell, then the Takeda Blitz has no choice but to fully conquer Shinano. In particular, they are not capable of retriving lost territory in Shell (the Blitz can only attack your provinces). This dramatically reduces any trouble that you will have making sure that your Permits will attack the Demon Army in the right way on Turn 25.

Take the One-Eyed Family Bonus?
I'm definitely going to try this. In the name of end of turn event optimization, the current run never has them introduced. Why am I going through that trouble and denying myself Omachi? I should just start the game with their bonus and enjoy the Lightning. I can't think of any way that this could come back to bite me.

Update: Someone in the comments has tried this. Apparently it causes no issues.

Shizuka?
Her passive skill would be a blessing, but surely, there's no room for her start of turn event? Even Kanami seems questionable, never mind Maria and Shizuka.