Talk:Sengoku Rance:Walkthrough/@comment-46261745-20200915135017/@comment-26544499-20200915152859

You're right, I tried to dumb this down since it's not a page about the skill, but I clearly went too far and ended up not telling the truth.

As for the 92% number, it's stupid how it's coded. As I understand it, from memory it goes like this: Step 1: Repeat the following 30 (29?) times. Step 2: Flip a coin, if heads, step 3a. If tails, step 3b. Step 3a: Pick a random slot on the player's side. It doesn't matter if there's a commander there or not. Step 3b: Same as step 3a, but for the enemy. Step 4: Mark the slot that you've picked as being delayed. After all of this, go through each delayed slot and do the Diviner/First Move/+10 stuff.

Assuming that this is right, then if you do the numbers, it's easy to see that on each loop, each slot has a one in twelve chance of being picked. To work out the chance of any given slot never being picked, pick up a statistics textbook. You can do it with a binomail distribution (n=30 {or was it 29?} and p=1/12), but it should be obvious that the probability of any individual slot never being picked is (1-1/12)^30 and therefore the probability of that slot being picked is 1-(1-1/12)^30. The only problem with this, as I've discussed before, is that our actual result ends up rounding to 93%, suggesting that I've either forgotten something or did something wrong the first time.